The XG and their association with goals scored in elite football
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.24310/riccafd.14.2.2025.21310Keywords:
football, goals, indicator, metric, resultAbstract
The purpose of this study was to analyze the association between xG and goals scored in football matches. This was a quantitative, correlational, and longitudinal study. A total of 333 league matches were analyzed. Data were obtained from Sofascore, a website that provides statistics and results for various sporting events. The hypothesis was that there is a positive correlation between xG and goals scored. The sample consisted of 333 official matches from international competitions, including the 2013/24 Champions League, the 2014 Copa Libertadores, the 2014 UEFA European Championship, and the 2014 Copa América. These tournaments were selected due to their high international relevance. The results of this research confirm the validity of using xG as an indicator to analyze a team's offensive performance, although its predictive capacity tends to vary depending on the context or competition (r = 0.488, p < 0.001). At club level, players have greater continuity in training together, which facilitates the establishment of a playing pattern. This could explain a higher xG (xG) compared to national team tournaments. The results obtained in this study confirm the relationship between xG and goals scored in football matches, thus establishing it as a valid indicator for measuring offensive performance in football. It was found that in club tournaments, the amount of association was highest in the Copa Libertadores (r = 0.537), with the strongest association between variables, while the association was lowest in the Champions League (r = 0.403). Meanwhile, in national team tournaments, the values for the Copa América and the European Championship were (r = 0.475) and (r = 0.479), respectively, where a certain similarity in the association of variables can be observed. This is attributed to the poor group cohesion and tactical adjustment of national teams compared to clubs.
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