Simulación de los Shocks Estructurales y Coyunturales del Sector Turístico en un Destino Canario afectado por Estancamiento y Declive

Abstract

In this paper, we model the trend in Tourism Supply in one area of the island of Tenerife, in the Canary Islands, Spain, whose growth in recent years has been affected by the well-known decline phase, to use Butler’s terminology. We use a modified Point Matching Method to determine parameter identification in logistic equations and a new version of the Bass equation to simulate the real trend of this variable. Whith this Model we can find a new treatment of the influence of the exogenous agents in the development of Tourist Industry in the Archipielagou. Moreover, we introduce new stochastic equations and by means of the Euler-Maruyama and Milstein methods we can establish notables differences between the structural Model and the causality of the variability of our countries economic scenarios.