Data mining y análisis matemático de las cuotas de las casas de apuestas deportivas online

Abstract

This paper addresses an empirical study on the behavior of the quotes for 1X2 bets in online betting houses in Spain. The study shows a theoretical approach where the bettor can obtain a systematic profitability and studies possible strategies in order to achieve that theoretical result in an actual, real-life framework. Programming and automation techniques, usually known as web-scraping, were used to obtain a dataset consisting on 115 days of bets on 175 football matches in Spanish National League from the Sportium online betting platform. Throughout the study, issues such as fair gaming, the margins obtained by bookmakers and the variables that intervene in the process of assigning prices to the quotes were analyzed.